Calling All SAVAge Apes!

This is a guest post by Internal_Ad_1091.

Listen up! Im about to present a once-in-a-generation opportunity to 75x your money**.** Too much, or too good to be true? Im being conservative. Hear me out.

First, I shall Flex:

1. I am an MD and a Professor. To spell out the obvious, I have insight into what matters in the medical world. Many pure researchers lack this (cough cough Elisabeth Bik). In addition, As medical school faculty, If I can't figure it out, I know who to ask.

2. I started investing (profitably) before most of you were born.

Why flex? To make it abundantly clear, my opinion on biotech investing matters just a little. With that said, once more, listen up!

The Pickle:

You youngins haven't noticed, but Alzheimer's is the 6th leading cause of death in the US. Currently, Alzheimer's is an epidemic. The kicker is, there is NO effective treatment.

The FDA needed a drug so desperately they approved Aduhelm. This drug has significant adverse events. The risk of brain swelling requires serial Brain MRIs. It also requires a demented patient to sit through an IV infusion (every six weeks) and costs more than $50k. Most incredible is that Biogen's medication is NO BETTER THAN A SUGAR PILL in two separate trials (so remember Biogen's drug sucks for a different point I'll make later).

Again, for emphasis, the FDA still approved it because the need is that severe. President Biden recently pointed out that Alzheimer's disease could soon cost the nation over a trillion dollars.

The Fix: $SAVA

Cassava Science's revolutionary Alzheimer's drug, Simufilam, improved cognitive function in its CMS trial. The degree and duration of improvement have NEVER been achieved, EVER for AD (Alzheimer's dementia)! It's historic. It also enhanced behavior. Family members with AD patients know that behavior is the overwhelming factor for family, but unfortunately, it doesnt get enough attention. Lastly, and critically to patients (and the discussion ahead), there were NO significant adverse events.

Yes, we can argue about nuances like study design, the N, etc. A genuine criticism of the study is its initially open-label. However, biased critics will ignore Simufilams effect has been far more robust than the usual placebo effect (88% vs. 30%). Those with ulterior motives conveniently forget that a placebo arm is being introduced to the ongoing phase 2 CMS study as we speak.

Without getting too technical, the best way to settle the few sincere criticisms is Phase 3 trials. There is no valid argument against this statement. This is one of those few moments where it's safe to use absolute phrases. If you take away only one point from this article, then remember, Phase 3 trials should move forward. The study will start early to mid-October at the dismay of Jordan Thomas (the villain, more about him later). Anyone who disagrees with further testing is not after the truth or and they are certainly not being objective. They are also threatening a much-needed potential breakthrough therapy. Be angry, fellow apes, be angry. Im just getting started, BTW.

Do market gurus like Blackrock and Vanguard believe this is a big deal? They do. That is why the stock price went from < $1 to an ATH of $147. So is it a buy at $50 (market cap of 2 billion)? My advice to my family is to load up! Now let's address why the stock crashed in the first place.

The Villan and His Massacre:

Jordan Thomas, a scumbag lawyer, presented the FDA with a "Citizens Petition." A team shorting SAVA drafted this said Citizens Petition (not lawsuit) out of concern for patient SAFETY (remember this point, it is critical to understanding motives). If that wasn't enough, Jordan Thomas filed another two addendums following the petitions over the last two weeks.

Essentially, it was around 70 pages full of technical jargon and a myriad of inconsequential details. The document was scary to read as an MD. Im sure the average person, first, shit in their pants, and, second, sold their shares. SAVA fell 55% in 3 days (overreaction play in the making? most definitely). As emotions have settled, this blog (https://ad-science.org/), Cassava itself, and many experts, including myself, rightly called it biased and fiction. The essentials from the petition and rebuttals.

1. Jordan Thomas has tried three times to halt clinical research on a drug that patients are literally dying as they wait. WTF!? Why, why why?? If you aren't angry, somethings wrong with you. JT states he is concerned for patient safety. However, as also mentioned above (multiple times), there is no evidence that Simufilam harmed a patient, period. So as expected, JT is unable to offer proof of patient harm. You read that correctly. In over seventy pages, there is no mention of patient harm. Then why did JT cite safety as his concern, despite having NO evidence? Because that is the *only* reason, the FDA will halt trials. Again, if Simufilam is safe and has shown to be a potential treatment, then the study shall continue. Oh, did I mention that the vast majority (>90%) of these petitions fail? Did I also note that Jordan Thomas' track record is horrendous (3% success rate)? Synopsis: JT is an incompetent lawyer who uses a failed method to frighten investors from their position using FUD in its purest form.

2. Then why the massive selloff? As I mentioned earlier, reading an enormous document full of details, even I, a literal verifiable SAVAge (maybe even a SAVAnt?) and professor/physician, was overwhelmed and anxious. Ultimately, I did not sell a single share. I did, however, increase my position by 30%. With that said, Im not surprised the masses started selling. Clearly, though, it was an overreaction. Even more apparent, it's an *opportunity*—a second chance to buy the stock on clearance.

The Financials:

$SAVA has 270 million in cash, no debt, and their cash burn is less than 20 million annually. Funding isn't a near-term issue.

Fifty million patients are suffering from AD globally. 6 million of those patients reside in the US. Let's say SAVA captures 1/4 of the American market and nothing internationally. Further, let's say the therapy costs $20k annually, just a bit over a third the cost of aducanumab (Biogen's soon to fail drug):

1,500,000 patients X $20,000 X 5 multiple = $150,000,000,000

That calculation is ridiculously conservative for a Simufilam if it ends up as good as it looks (in a market with no other effective treatment options). The current stock price is $50. The overly conservative valuation would put SAVA's SP at $3750

The above does not factor in SavaDx or expanded label use for seizures and other types of dementia.

Once Again Elaborating On The Need:

If you have a heart attack, Stroke, Pneumonia, or any of the leading causes of death, there are treatments- actually, many treatments. I'm a hospital-based physician and regularly see all the common causes of death, so why does AD stand out? Again, there is no effective treatment. Thats devastating for patients, but families? It's not uncommon for families to drop their loved ones off in the ER because they "can't handle it anymore." This market is massive and unaddressed! Severely, painfully, and gravely unaddressed.

I have little doubt that SAVA will make many believers millionaires (SAVAilinaries?), but JT must stop delaying the process. JT is only the face of this farce. Behind him are many short positions making a 100 million off deceit, but they are just pawns. Let them have their short-term gain. There is something far more concerning.

The Plot Thickens:

What I am concerned about goes far beyond 100 million in profit or short-term price action. There is something much more sinister. Biogen has spent over a billion dollars on getting its AD drug approved. Now it is expecting to make many more billions in profit, but there is a problem:

FDA advisory committee voted overwhelmingly against approval of Biogen's AD medication and then saw a series of resignations in the approval's aftermath. Subsequently, a special panel convened by the non-profit Institute of Clinical and Economic Review unanimously (15-0) that the therapy lacks evidence to support its clinical benefit. In addition, both the Cleveland Clinic and Mount Sinai (two of the most distinguished medical centers in the country) announced that they categorically refuse to administer Biogen's AD drug. This is in addition to what I already mentioned above. Essentially, their medication SUCKS (remember the key point I wanted you to take away), but Biogen expects to make billions because there is no other therapy on the market. Well, what happens if a new, more effective medication shows up?

This Is Where It Gets Sinister:

Back to our Villian JT. JT's supplement (submitted over a week after the initial "Citizens Patetion") you'll notice something much more sinister. JT is desperately trying to stop further proof Simufilam works. Why? I speculate that big pharma (Biogen) is the unnamed/anonymous whistleblower (not a citizen filing a petition). They aren't worried about 100 million in profit; their concern is 100's of billions in profit because Biogen's drug DOES. NOT. WORK vs. Simufilam, which is more effective, cheaper, safer, and easier to administer. There is little doubt the FDA will approve simufilam in a year or less. When that happens, it is the nail in the coffin for Biogen drug. Biogen already has declining revenue and is itself desperate for a medication to rejuvenate the companies earnings. Then expediently and as expected, Biogen is trying to stop SAVA desperately.

I believe that is the root issue. Yes, I hate shorters, but I have become furious at Biogen trying to squash Simufliam! A group of us have gathered much interest in counter suing JT and pressing Congress to investigate this petition and its motives (more to come on that).

Short term price action:

1. Im expecting the SP to bounce. After full-on panic selling, SAVA is a perfect overreaction play. If you dont know what Im talking about, you can look up "overreaction with reversion to the mean."

2. Remi Announced a non-dilutive, nondebt partnership announcement within "weeks to months."

3. Twelve-month data from the CMS trial has been collected and should be released within weeks. ("Soon" per Remi)

4. Remi's fireside chat this Monday (9/13/21) at 7 AM at H.C. Wainwright's 23rd Annual Global Investment Conference.

#SAVA's float is less than 40 million, and currently, almost 27% is shorted with utilization of >90%. It'll take very little to make SAVA move, big. Float is ten times lower than AMC and about 25% less than GME.

I have a lot to say, and if there is interest, I'll continue to post on SAVA. My goal was to keep this post under 1000 words (failed!). I'll finish with one last piece of advice. Over 19 years of investing, my most successful plays have been opportunities others missed. Misleading and misunderstood headlines have led to unjustified negative sentiment by poorly informed investors. The half-assed research was further propagated by "experts" tweeting and commenting with their hidden agendas. Dr. Elisabeth Bik voiced concerns without looking at the actual published results, but apparently, her opinion counts? Comments of her blog documented this. All because a scumbag lawyer used technical vernacular to cause panic. Something along the lines of, "oh, he sounds smart, so he must be right." or "That sounds complicated, he must be on to something." In reality, Jordan Thomas screamed fire in a theater. Investors panicked and ran for the exits. Big words and technical details are fooling many. DFV saw something well before masses, and he was paid handsomely for it.

If my opinion piece has motivated you to join SAVA's fight against Biogen, then buy shares, spread the knowledge. Sleep well if you decide to go in with me, knowing this is a righteous fight: six million AD patients vs. a slimy lawyer, his short crew, and big Pharma.

I am long. I have been wrong many times, and I am not a financial advisor. Do your own DD before making any decisions.