$SAVA - Cassava's simufilam thoughts
SAVA stock has been unfairly beat down recently and we should step back and take a look at the bigger picture.
I did drug development for Pfizer and I'm a neurologist who has treated tens of thousands of Alzheimer's patients, so I can discuss any aspect of the science. I can tell you that research papers are typically full of errors, and end up being published in big journals without anyone ever noticing. The errors don't imply fraud itself. These western blots from 15 years ago was before simufilam was even discovered. The western blots are done on a plate, which is all analog. To make it digital in the early 2000s, you had to piece it together manually in photoshop. Some old Chinese scientist may not be the best at this sort of work.
The discovery of simufilam makes logical sense. Previous research done by others found excessive tau hyperphosphorylation in many neurodegenerative diseases including Alzheimer's. And they found a link between tau hyperphosphorylation with Filamin A. Then they screen for a molecule that binds to Filamin A and generated a range of drug candidates. Of those, they picked simufilam as it binded the strongest. This info is all from their patent.
My own interest started with the ADAS-Cog data improvement. This is an memory and IQ test lasting 45 minutes. The max is 70 points but even a young intelligent person usually misses a few points. The 9 month results showed 3 point improvement when we would expect a 4 point decline in placebo from previous Alzheimer's drug trials. That's a 7 point difference. With a response rate in 98% of the patients. It is too big to be a statistical anomaly. It's the difference between Grandma lying confused in bed most of the day to suddenly remembering what she had for breakfast that morning and being able to play the piano again. The ADAS-Cog is performed by 16 different agencies with their own doctors, and another independent agency analyzes the data and posts it on the NIH website.
Dr. Bik is the same person who did this same crap to Moderna and investors who listened to her lost out big. Whereas Dr. Michael Burry, himself trained as a neurologist, bought calls on SAVA. It is one of the few stocks he is bullish in.
SAVA Stock Catalysts:
My guess is Phase three trials will start within two weeks. 12-month data will be release lasted by October. The partnership will be announced within three months. So basically, a lot of catalysts are coming up over the next three months. I think the biggest catalyst for the stock is the announcement of Phase 3 starting. But for me I'm most interested in the 12 month open data.
I hope I get the chance to buy more shares later this month. Then the catalysts will be coming late Sept (or October) and the stock should go up pretty quick with help from short squeezes. Once it's up big, the shorts will plan another attack. This is why I prefer owning shares rather than call options. Stocks would be temporarily down while call options become a total loss. Since my SAVA shares are not on margin, just 100% cash, there's no risk of margin call when price crashes like in the past 2 weeks.
My price target in the next year is $200. After FDA approval, if all goes well, I'm expecting a $600 billion market cap for a company with an Alzheimer's treatment. Sometimes Phase 2 drugs don't pass Phase 3. It's usually due to the Phase 2 being too short or small sample size, or placebo effect for the more subjective diseases. Simufilam's Phase 2 is more like a Phase 2.5, it enrolled a lot of patients for 12 full months, plus dementia is not as susceptible to placebo effects. If 12 month data continues to be good, then I'll be very excited. Most non-science investors will be more excited the partnership and the official Phase 3 start date announcement.
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